Following the 2022 U.S. Midterm elections, I was ready to write Donald Trump off from making a political comeback. Trump’s handpicked candidates lost Senate and Governor races that should have been easy pickups for Republicans during the election cycle. To add insult to injury, it was around this time that President Joe Biden had a lower approval rating than any U.S. President at the same time in their presidency. Despite Trump’s failure electorally, one Republican in particular made a spectacular showing at the midterms: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
Bringing a 19.4 per cent landslide victory, DeSantis, who was already considered to have the potential to run for the Republican presidential nomination back in 2022, triumphed where Trump had failed. I had predicted the rise of DeSantis as Trump’s successor since April of 2021. It looked like that prediction was coming to reality. Immediately after the midterms, polls shot up for DeSantis. Though not all showed him beating Trump, there seemed to be a severe blow to Trump’s monopoly over the Republican party. I certainly thought so myself. Yet, just as in 2016, Trump is full of surprises.
It is now roughly five months since the midterm elections took place in November of 2022: DeSantis is polling at the lowest he has been since October 2022. Even when previously beating Trump in a head-to-head matchup, every poll from mid-February to March has now seen Trump win even when no other candidates are present. DeSantis, who has not officially declared a campaign for the Republican nomination despite speculation, looks as though he’s been relegated back to his pre-midterm status: present, but not paramount. Even when DeSantis, who is arguably the strongest contender against Trump, is no longer seeming to beat him, it looks as though Trump has made a comeback to the top.
If Trump is to win the nomination, Republicans need to ask themselves a question: Can you overlook what he’s done? In spite of his sexism, race-baiting remarks, the indifference of white supremacist groups such as the Proud Boys and leaders like Nick Fuentes, seemingly infinite corruption scandals, disrespect for fallen military personnel, lies about the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic, open support for the January 6 storming of the Capitol, and continued effort to undermine faith in the American democratic, can you overlook him? Unfortunately, the answer is yes. But have we gotten to the point where Trump is the nominee? Currently, I think the answer remains no.
Despite recapturing some of his lost support, we are still in the early days of the 2024 election cycle. The first primary debates are scheduled for August 2023, five months from now. In that time, there is a strong chance more Republican candidates will throw their hats in the race for the nomination. DeSantis might be one of them. Even now, two major candidates have declared their campaigns to challenge Trump in the primaries: Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy.
Haley, the former governor of South Carolina and U.N. Ambassador under Trump, was widely thought of as a contender for the nomination prior to DeSantis’s rise in popularity. Due to the friction she has had with Trump in the past and now openly challenging him, I doubt she will be able to pull support away from him.
Ramaswamy was not a known name to Americans prior to his candidacy. Claiming he was inspired to run by Trump’s “anti-establishment” campaign in 2016, the entrepreneur looks as though he wants to capture that same “businessman energy” Trump brought to the presidency. I would write him off for lack of name recognition, but with Trump’s defying-all-the-odds 2016 campaign, I’ll reserve my judgement for now.
On the current trajectory, the Republican nomination is Trump’s game to lose. He may do just that, but he will certainly put up the fight regardless. If he wins the nomination, it won’t just be Republican voters but all Americans who will have to answer the same question: Can you overlook what he’s done? I will not, but as someone who is not too enthusiastic about President Joe Biden either, I can’t say for certain that most Americans will share my sentiments or even be justified in doing so.
“Donald Trump” by Gage Skidmore is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.
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Will we be seeing a return of Donald Trump?
Following the 2022 U.S. Midterm elections, I was ready to write Donald Trump off from making a political comeback. Trump’s handpicked candidates lost Senate and Governor races that should have been easy pickups for Republicans during the election cycle. To add insult to injury, it was around this time that President Joe Biden had a lower approval rating than any U.S. President at the same time in their presidency. Despite Trump’s failure electorally, one Republican in particular made a spectacular showing at the midterms: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
Bringing a 19.4 per cent landslide victory, DeSantis, who was already considered to have the potential to run for the Republican presidential nomination back in 2022, triumphed where Trump had failed. I had predicted the rise of DeSantis as Trump’s successor since April of 2021. It looked like that prediction was coming to reality. Immediately after the midterms, polls shot up for DeSantis. Though not all showed him beating Trump, there seemed to be a severe blow to Trump’s monopoly over the Republican party. I certainly thought so myself. Yet, just as in 2016, Trump is full of surprises.
It is now roughly five months since the midterm elections took place in November of 2022: DeSantis is polling at the lowest he has been since October 2022. Even when previously beating Trump in a head-to-head matchup, every poll from mid-February to March has now seen Trump win even when no other candidates are present. DeSantis, who has not officially declared a campaign for the Republican nomination despite speculation, looks as though he’s been relegated back to his pre-midterm status: present, but not paramount. Even when DeSantis, who is arguably the strongest contender against Trump, is no longer seeming to beat him, it looks as though Trump has made a comeback to the top.
If Trump is to win the nomination, Republicans need to ask themselves a question: Can you overlook what he’s done? In spite of his sexism, race-baiting remarks, the indifference of white supremacist groups such as the Proud Boys and leaders like Nick Fuentes, seemingly infinite corruption scandals, disrespect for fallen military personnel, lies about the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic, open support for the January 6 storming of the Capitol, and continued effort to undermine faith in the American democratic, can you overlook him? Unfortunately, the answer is yes. But have we gotten to the point where Trump is the nominee? Currently, I think the answer remains no.
Despite recapturing some of his lost support, we are still in the early days of the 2024 election cycle. The first primary debates are scheduled for August 2023, five months from now. In that time, there is a strong chance more Republican candidates will throw their hats in the race for the nomination. DeSantis might be one of them. Even now, two major candidates have declared their campaigns to challenge Trump in the primaries: Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy.
Haley, the former governor of South Carolina and U.N. Ambassador under Trump, was widely thought of as a contender for the nomination prior to DeSantis’s rise in popularity. Due to the friction she has had with Trump in the past and now openly challenging him, I doubt she will be able to pull support away from him.
Ramaswamy was not a known name to Americans prior to his candidacy. Claiming he was inspired to run by Trump’s “anti-establishment” campaign in 2016, the entrepreneur looks as though he wants to capture that same “businessman energy” Trump brought to the presidency. I would write him off for lack of name recognition, but with Trump’s defying-all-the-odds 2016 campaign, I’ll reserve my judgement for now.
On the current trajectory, the Republican nomination is Trump’s game to lose. He may do just that, but he will certainly put up the fight regardless. If he wins the nomination, it won’t just be Republican voters but all Americans who will have to answer the same question: Can you overlook what he’s done? I will not, but as someone who is not too enthusiastic about President Joe Biden either, I can’t say for certain that most Americans will share my sentiments or even be justified in doing so.
“Donald Trump” by Gage Skidmore is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.
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