For decades, the Gulf states have tried to present themselves as states of prosperity and stability in one of the world’s most volatile regions. But the United States and Israel’s war on Iran is pulling them directly to the front line of a new Middle Eastern conflict. With critical shipping routes, energy infrastructure and American bases being targeted across these states, they’ve become unavoidable actors in this war. The Gulf’s image as a safe, wealthy centre of tourism and travel is being dismantled. This war is not confined to just the US, Israel and Iran, it is rapidly spreading across the region, placing their security directly in the line of fire.
The past week has seen a dramatic escalation in Iran’s attacks across the Gulf. Whilst US and Israeli warplanes struck the Islamic Republic, Iran retaliated with strikes on commercial ships and Dubai’s international airport. Kuwait reported its air defences downing eight Iranian drones, whilst Saudi Arabia intercepted five strikes heading towards oil fields. Iran’s senior officials explicitly warned of a “war of attrition,” one that would invoke economic chaos as energy supplies across the region are being dismantled.
The clearest expression of their ‘war of attrition’ is expressed by Iran’s targeting of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway which handles over 20 per cent of the global oil and LNG (liquefied natural gas) trade, making it one of the world’s most crucial trade pathways. Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has effectively come to a halt since US and Israeli attacks on Tehran promoted Iranian retaliations across the region, with Iranian strikes on Saudi and Qatari oil also resulting in the shut down of some oil production entirely.
The consequences of this war extends beyond economic markets and oil prices. Civilian life is being pulled into it as Lebanon becomes the subject of Israeli airstrikes. In the early hours on 12 March, neighbourhoods of central Beirut were hit by Israel, killing at least seven people and injuring some of the 700,000 displaced civilians who were finding refuge in the area. Israel’s strikes since the beginning of the conflict have killed over 600 people, and total death tolls surpass one thousand since the US and Israel launched their first attack on 28 February.
Despite Donald Trump’s childish claims of victory, declaring in Washington that “in the first hour it was over,” events in the region suggest otherwise. Far from conclusion, the war remains dangerous and unpredictable. The Gulf’s carefully manufactured security is shattering, and regional governments across the Middle East are bracing for further impact. Israel’s defence minister said their military campaign would continue “without any time limit, as long as required, until we achieve all objectives.” As the war drags on, the Gulf uncomfortably lies in the middle of it.
Gulf monarchies have historically kept geopolitics at arms length. Oman made efforts to be a mediator in the US-Iran negotiations talks, and other Gulf states lobbied in Washington, using the Gulf’s soft power to remain in cooperation with the US. Meanwhile, they refused airspace or territory to be used to attack Iran, in attempt to remain neutral in the war. Whether their attempted neutrality has failed or their geography has made it simply impossible, the Gulf states find themselves submerged in a war they’ve been trying to avoid.
“President Trump’s Trip Abroad” by The White House is marked with Public Domain Mark 1.0.
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Trump’s War on Iran is Shattering Stability in the Gulf
For decades, the Gulf states have tried to present themselves as states of prosperity and stability in one of the world’s most volatile regions. But the United States and Israel’s war on Iran is pulling them directly to the front line of a new Middle Eastern conflict. With critical shipping routes, energy infrastructure and American bases being targeted across these states, they’ve become unavoidable actors in this war. The Gulf’s image as a safe, wealthy centre of tourism and travel is being dismantled. This war is not confined to just the US, Israel and Iran, it is rapidly spreading across the region, placing their security directly in the line of fire.
The past week has seen a dramatic escalation in Iran’s attacks across the Gulf. Whilst US and Israeli warplanes struck the Islamic Republic, Iran retaliated with strikes on commercial ships and Dubai’s international airport. Kuwait reported its air defences downing eight Iranian drones, whilst Saudi Arabia intercepted five strikes heading towards oil fields. Iran’s senior officials explicitly warned of a “war of attrition,” one that would invoke economic chaos as energy supplies across the region are being dismantled.
The clearest expression of their ‘war of attrition’ is expressed by Iran’s targeting of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway which handles over 20 per cent of the global oil and LNG (liquefied natural gas) trade, making it one of the world’s most crucial trade pathways. Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has effectively come to a halt since US and Israeli attacks on Tehran promoted Iranian retaliations across the region, with Iranian strikes on Saudi and Qatari oil also resulting in the shut down of some oil production entirely.
The consequences of this war extends beyond economic markets and oil prices. Civilian life is being pulled into it as Lebanon becomes the subject of Israeli airstrikes. In the early hours on 12 March, neighbourhoods of central Beirut were hit by Israel, killing at least seven people and injuring some of the 700,000 displaced civilians who were finding refuge in the area. Israel’s strikes since the beginning of the conflict have killed over 600 people, and total death tolls surpass one thousand since the US and Israel launched their first attack on 28 February.
Despite Donald Trump’s childish claims of victory, declaring in Washington that “in the first hour it was over,” events in the region suggest otherwise. Far from conclusion, the war remains dangerous and unpredictable. The Gulf’s carefully manufactured security is shattering, and regional governments across the Middle East are bracing for further impact. Israel’s defence minister said their military campaign would continue “without any time limit, as long as required, until we achieve all objectives.” As the war drags on, the Gulf uncomfortably lies in the middle of it.
Gulf monarchies have historically kept geopolitics at arms length. Oman made efforts to be a mediator in the US-Iran negotiations talks, and other Gulf states lobbied in Washington, using the Gulf’s soft power to remain in cooperation with the US. Meanwhile, they refused airspace or territory to be used to attack Iran, in attempt to remain neutral in the war. Whether their attempted neutrality has failed or their geography has made it simply impossible, the Gulf states find themselves submerged in a war they’ve been trying to avoid.
“President Trump’s Trip Abroad” by The White House is marked with Public Domain Mark 1.0.
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