The latest YouGov poll suggests that Labour would be the largest party in the House of Commons at the next general election, despite losing its majority.
If an election were held tomorrow, it claims that Labour would win 241 seats, a significant loss from the party’s 2024 majority.
Trailing behind them would be the Conservatives with 130 seats, and Reform UK with 123.
A YouGov mega poll held this time last year suggested that a Reform-led government would be “a near certainty if an election were held” at that time.
Labour’s most likely option in this election scenario, then, would be to form a minority coalition government with the help of the Liberal Democrats’ 71 seats.
In Scotland, the election would be a rebound for the SNP under John Swinney, with 40 seats, an increase of 31 from 2024’s results.
One student responded to the poll, saying: “Labour is probably likely to win based on their current popularity and how much support they are gaining from younger people.”
Another said: “The poll probably doesn’t show enthusiasm for Labour, working-class people are trapped in a cycle of voting for the lesser evil.”
The next general election would probably show a stark gap between each party’s national vote share and its representation in parliament.
While the Green Party is set to win 9 seats from 12 per cent of the national vote, Labour seems to take its staggering 241 seats from only 24 per cent of voters.
This might accelerate demands for electoral reform, with First Past the Post denounced by Andy Burnham in a party conference speech on 29 September 2026.
Photo by Paul Silvan on Unsplash.
