Is the disintegration of the UK inevitable? That is the question raised by a memorandum signed in Cardiff on 14 September by the leaders of Plaid Cymru, the SNP, and Sinn Féin, in which they affirmed a shared belief that “Westminster’s time is coming to an end” and agreed to work together towards constitutional change. Serious cracks are forming in the political framework of the United Kingdom, and these are sharpened by the Cardiff summit, which symbolically underlines the problems facing Andy Burnham’s nascent premiership.
The memorandum, signed by First Ministers Rhun ap Iorwerth, John Swinney, and Michelle O’Neill, alongside Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald, was agreed at a party level. This is partly because O’Neill is unable to make constitutional agreements in her capacity as First Minister of Northern Ireland since she shares a joint office with DUP deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly, a unionist deeply opposed to Irish unification.
John Swinney outlined at the summit how the Scottish government claims a mandate for an immediate independence referendum, citing a pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament after the 2026 election. The Scottish government does not, however, hold the power to call another referendum, with this a ‘reserved matter’ for Westminster. Andy Burnham stated in a public letter to Swinney that such a referendum remains “off-limits” for the foreseeable future, despite the Scottish Parliament voting in May 2026 to demand Westminster permanently transfer referendum powers to Holyrood.
Alex, a first-year student at the University of Edinburgh, said that he agreed with this approach, believing that “the Scottish government should focus on issues it actually has the power to solve.” Taylor, a third-year Law student, vehemently disagrees with this, however, arguing that “only through independence” can Scotland overcome its challenges. He brought up the example of Westminster blocking the Scottish Government from rolling out legal safe drug consumption rooms, despite Scotland being the European drug death capital, as an example of how Scotland would function better alone.
Unlike the SNP, Plaid Cymru largely avoided independence in their 2026 election campaign, with Plaid Cymru’s manifesto stating that Wales is on a gradual “journey towards independence” and Rhun ap Iorwerth promising not to call for a referendum in this term. For the SNP, meanwhile, independence sat on the very first page of their manifesto. Recent opinion polling shows that Welsh independence is only supported by 20-25 per cent of the Welsh population, compared to 48-52 per cent of people in Scotland. Lara, from South Wales, reinforced this, telling The Student that she thinks Plaid Cymru is “making a mistake” by integrating themselves so heavily into the independence debate, as Welsh independence is “so unpopular.”
Sinn Féin’s decision to participate in the Cardiff summit was also controversial, with Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin criticising the move. Sinn Féin fundamentally reject British jurisdiction over Northern Ireland and for this reason their seven MPs follow an abstentionist policy in Westminster. Martin told RTÉ that Sinn Féin “may even set back unity” by equivalising Irish unity with the desire for Scottish and Welsh independence.
The memorandum from the Cardiff summit did not call for any immediate, direct action from the British government beyond broadly “planning for and enabling constitutional change,” but it exposes the problems facing Andy Burnham. This is a particularly acute issue for the Labour Party, given their poor performance in the May devolved elections, with Labour securing a mere 17 seats in the Scottish Parliament compared to the SNP’s 57 and losing power in Wales to Plaid Cymru for the first time since devolution. If Welsh and Scottish independence did occur, these vital seats would likely be lost for good, and Labour would struggle to secure power through English votes alone.
Photo by Ulia Makoveeva for The Student.
