What Lula’s re-election means for the Amazon

In the closest Presidential race in Brazil’s history, Incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (called just Lula by the media) was re-elected in a near 51-49 vote share split against rival Flávio Bolsonaro. While Bolsonaro is free to act like a sore loser, attention should turn to what Lula’s victory means for the future of Brazil.

While South America has gotten a taste for right-wing populism in recent years, this is a rare case of it being fended off by voters. Not even Trump and Milei throwing their weight around could give the son of the former (now imprisoned) President of Brazil a win. So, what did the younger Bolsonaro do wrong? Well, one of the most controversial aspects of his campaign came down to his environmental policies; or rather, his willingness to hack up the Amazon.

Flávio is definitely his father’s son. Jair Bolsonaro gutted national environmental agencies and gladly allowed the biggest assault on the Amazon Rainforest seen in years. The acceleration of deforestation was unlike any seen under past Presidents. Simply put, Greenpeace was right to call his tenure a catastrophe.

Was Flávio going to turn a new leaf? No. As a lawmaker he tried to absolve landowners of responsibility for sustainability and it was certain he was going to continue this as President. Always seen as an heir to his father’s rule by his allies, he would have certainly continued his lax attitude to the pillaging of the Amazon.

So, what does Lula intend to do differently? In his most recent term, he has already saved an area equivalent to a small US state from deforestation. But mitigating the damage the older Bolsonaro did will only do so much. To truly make a difference requires action. Reducing CO2 emissions by 50 per cent by 2030 is a good first step, but there must be more urgency than pinning down progress to years from now.

As seen in the demographics of Lula’s voters, the north of the country was indispensable for his re-election. This gives him a mandate to serve the Amazon stronger than before to protect these regional interests. As South America swings further under the spell of right-wing populism, Lula’s victory can send the message that the left needs to become bolder to hold their ground. The Amazon is a global symbol of a diverse, living, and breathing environment. If Lula is smart, he should use that as grounds to launch a more ambitious fourth term.

Photo by Raphael Nogueira on Unsplash.