In the short time since Trump’s inauguration, US foreign politics have undergone a massive shift, much to the dismay of European leaders.
Trump is touting what sounds like Kremlin propaganda, stating that Ukraine was to blame for the full-scale invasion, attempting to undermine Zelensky’s democratic legitimacy.
Furthermore, the US has made it perfectly clear that European security will not be prioritised moving forward. Secretary of Defence, Pete Hegseth, stated that the US will no longer “tolerate an imbalanced relationship” regarding defense spending in Europe.
The newly elected chancellor of Germany, Freidrich Merz, reacted to this turn in policy by questioning the future of the US – European relationship, which now seems to be on the rocks. Merz specifically questioned whether the US would uphold NATO’s collective defense clause, and urged Europe to be prepared to defend itself without the help of the US.
He is right to do so.
When we consider the sobering fact that the US commits around 70 per cent of NATO’s capabilities, it is difficult to picture how Europe would be able to fend off a possible attack without American backing. With a resurgent Russia, an attack is not out of the question, especially to Eastern and Central European states, who fear Putin’s territorial appetite stretches further than Ukraine. With tariffs on EU products looming, it is time to accept that an 80-year-long special relationship might be dying.
As an eternal optimist, I think it is possible to find opportunity in this divorce. NATO has the record of the longest standing peace-time alliance, but is by no means a perfect organisation. The fact that we can lose 70 per cent of its capabilities could be the push needed to fully shift toward greater European defense integration, independent of US influence.
An autonomous European military alliance would, of course, depend on all states increasing defense budgets and aligning security goals. Starmer has already committed to the biggest increase in military spending since the Cold War, and other European leaders are expected to follow suit.
As for security goals, Russia is standing firmly on our doorstep, not only a threat to Ukraine but the whole of Europe. Yes, European security without NATO might be a terrifying prospect right now, but perhaps the end of one era is precisely what we need to usher in a better one.
“Friedrich Merz, EPP Political Assembly, 04-05 May, Munich (cropped)” by European People’s Party is licensed under CC BY 2.0.
