With arguably the biggest regulation changes in the history of Formula One, this season is gearing up to be one of the most unpredictable yet. Eyes will naturally be on defending champions Lando Norris and McLaren, although they could expect a close fight from Mercedes and Ferrari.
George Russell and Mercedes are the bookies’ favourites for this season, and are hotly tipped among many analysts. Mercedes finished second in the Constructors’ Championship last year, with George Russell stepping up in his role as number one Mercedes driver after Lewis Hamilton joined Ferrari. Rumours within the F1 paddock suggest the Mercedes package is the strongest this year, giving Russell the best chance to win his first championship.
The Constructors’ Championship may be a close battle with defending champions McLaren, who have a strong lineup of Norris and Oscar Piastri. As they will also benefit from a Mercedes engine, they could retain the Constructors’ Championship. However, this may depend on the performance of 19-year-old Mercedes driver Kimi Antonelli, and whether he can closely match Russell’s performances.
Ferrari could also be in the championship mix this season, as Charles Leclerc set the fastest lap time in pre-season testing. Although this isn’t usually the best indicator of championship performance, it does suggest that Ferrari can make considerable improvements on last season. Lewis Hamilton will be deeply hoping he will have an opportunity to win a record-breaking eighth world championship, especially after his annus horribilis in 2025, where he was unable to stand on a Grand Prix podium.
Red Bull Racing do appear to be slightly behind these top three teams at the moment, arguably because they are producing their own engine for the first time. However, Max Verstappen has previously shown the ability to effortlessly outperform his machinery, so he can never be ruled out. Eyes will also be on Isack Hadjar to see if he can end Red Bull’s second seat curse — this could be harder if Red Bull don’t produce a front-running car.
In the midfield, Alpine are poised to make gains, helped by having the supposedly strong Mercedes engine. Haas are also looking to move forward, with many eyes on 20-year-old Ollie Bearman. Last year’s rookie achieved many strong results, including a fourth-place finish, the joint-best result in the team’s history.
Audi look to threaten the midfield after their takeover of the Sauber team and a solid start in testing, while questions remain over whether rookie Arvid Lindblad can impress in his debut season for Racing Bulls.
At this stage, Williams, Aston Martin, and Cadillac are expected to be the backmarkers.
In 2025, Williams remarkably improved from ninth to fifth in the Constructors’ Championship — the team, however, appear to be on the back foot going into this season, and they embarrassingly missed the first pre-season test in Barcelona.
Aston Martin have also found the new regulations difficult — surprising given the signing of legendary F1 car designer Adrian Newey. In testing, they had the slowest car and completed the fewest laps. This likely puts to bed any optimistic hopes that two-time world champion Fernando Alonso can challenge for race wins again before his retirement.
Cadillac are making their F1 debut this season with two experienced race winners in Valtteri Bottas and Sergio Pérez. They are expected to be largely uncompetitive this year given the team has been built from scratch. Although, if there are any opportunities to pick up points, Bottas and Perez are two of the best drivers to do so.
At the end of the season, I predict that George Russell will become World Champion after a season-long battle with both McLaren drivers. Verstappen will impress and win a few races, but his Red Bull will not be competitive enough to mount a serious title fight.
While Kimi Antonelli will impress and secure his first Grand Prix win, he won’t quite be at the level of Russell just yet, allowing McLaren to pip Mercedes to the Constructors’ Championship for a third consecutive year.
Ferrari will make progress with their car, and both Leclerc and Hamilton will secure wins. However, the Italian team will ultimately finish third in the championship, partly because Mercedes and McLaren will be too good for them, and partly due to key strategy errors.
Finally, my wildcard prediction is that out of Fernando Alonso, Lewis Hamilton, and Max Verstappen, at least two of these drivers will leave F1 at the end of this season. Not that I want this to happen of course — the sport would not be the same without these three championship-winning legends. However, with both Alonso and Hamilton into their 40s, there have already been many rumours about their retirements, especially if Aston Martin and Ferrari cannot produce competitive machinery this season. Verstappen is less likely to leave F1, however he has publicly stated a desire to explore other racing series such as 24 Hours of Le Mans, as well as a wish to spend more time with his family.
Regardless of future speculation, 2026 promises to be one of the most exciting seasons of Formula One in recent memory, with new regulations threatening to shake up the competitive order.