Pete Buttigieg cannot win the Democratic Nomination. If the United States as a whole were 90% white, as Iowa and New Hampshire are, then he would be the candidate to beat. However, as things stand, South Bend’s former mayor is on the cusp of enjoying a hefty dose of political reality; democratic voters are racially diverse and if you can’t form a multiracial coalition you can’t triumph. At the time of writing, Nevada, the first state in the primary calendar with a majority-minority democratic electorate, is just around the corner – for the candidates it is their first test of strength among Hispanic and African-American voters. So will the young (read ‘fresh’), inexperienced (read ‘Washington outsider’) and questionable (read ‘intrepid’) ex-mayor be able to seize the day? Will he, against the odds, break through and show his staying power? Dun Dun Dun!
Spoiler: No – he will probably come in 3rd at best but probably 4th. If somehow he struggles through Nevada then South Carolina should probably deal the fatal blow. Sure, he won’t drop out before Super Tuesday, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be a dead man walking. After these contests, Pete’s main contribution will be those perfectly rehearsed debate soundbites and the continued vexation of Amy Klobuchar. So, with Buttigieg’s candidacy about to wind down (barring an Episcopalian act of god) let us reflect on the outside impact that his campaign may have had.
As I see it, there are two options here. One: Buttigieg, like Biden, Bloomberg, Klobuchar and to some extent Warren, successfully split the moderate vote leading to either outright victory by Sanders or, very possibly, a contested convention with Sanders having a plurality but not a majority of delegates; first cue tumult, then cue super-delegates and finally cue all hell breaking loose. Option no. 1 is how Buttigieg is going to be seen by his fellow moderates when they have to go back to being a Senator from Minnesota, or whatever.
But what if we’re looking at this the wrong way? Maybe ‘getting in the way’ wasn’t Buttigieg’s greatest failure but in fact his noblest contribution. Faced with the near-unstoppable campaign juggernaut of Bernard Sanders, only Buttigieg was able to prevent this dangerous socialist building insurmountable momentum in the early states before dominating Super Tuesday. Perhaps it doesn’t matter that Buttigieg can’t win the ‘nom’ – he halted Bernie early and gave Bloomberg a fighting chance in the later states. Let us call option no. 2 ‘Buttigieg: The Sacrificial Lamb’ (Coming soon to a fish fry near you).
There is no doubt that Buttigieg will grace the news cycles of the future. Regardless of his ideas (or lack thereof), he has support, talent and ambition. Like seriously, so much ambition. He won’t end up being anyone’s running mate but he’ll probably make a decent Secretary of Defence at some point. And who knows, he’s still young – #pete2028 anyone?
Image: Gage Skidmore via Flickr
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Buttigieg: The Sacrificial Lamb
Pete Buttigieg cannot win the Democratic Nomination. If the United States as a whole were 90% white, as Iowa and New Hampshire are, then he would be the candidate to beat. However, as things stand, South Bend’s former mayor is on the cusp of enjoying a hefty dose of political reality; democratic voters are racially diverse and if you can’t form a multiracial coalition you can’t triumph. At the time of writing, Nevada, the first state in the primary calendar with a majority-minority democratic electorate, is just around the corner – for the candidates it is their first test of strength among Hispanic and African-American voters. So will the young (read ‘fresh’), inexperienced (read ‘Washington outsider’) and questionable (read ‘intrepid’) ex-mayor be able to seize the day? Will he, against the odds, break through and show his staying power? Dun Dun Dun!
Spoiler: No – he will probably come in 3rd at best but probably 4th. If somehow he struggles through Nevada then South Carolina should probably deal the fatal blow. Sure, he won’t drop out before Super Tuesday, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be a dead man walking. After these contests, Pete’s main contribution will be those perfectly rehearsed debate soundbites and the continued vexation of Amy Klobuchar. So, with Buttigieg’s candidacy about to wind down (barring an Episcopalian act of god) let us reflect on the outside impact that his campaign may have had.
As I see it, there are two options here. One: Buttigieg, like Biden, Bloomberg, Klobuchar and to some extent Warren, successfully split the moderate vote leading to either outright victory by Sanders or, very possibly, a contested convention with Sanders having a plurality but not a majority of delegates; first cue tumult, then cue super-delegates and finally cue all hell breaking loose. Option no. 1 is how Buttigieg is going to be seen by his fellow moderates when they have to go back to being a Senator from Minnesota, or whatever.
But what if we’re looking at this the wrong way? Maybe ‘getting in the way’ wasn’t Buttigieg’s greatest failure but in fact his noblest contribution. Faced with the near-unstoppable campaign juggernaut of Bernard Sanders, only Buttigieg was able to prevent this dangerous socialist building insurmountable momentum in the early states before dominating Super Tuesday. Perhaps it doesn’t matter that Buttigieg can’t win the ‘nom’ – he halted Bernie early and gave Bloomberg a fighting chance in the later states. Let us call option no. 2 ‘Buttigieg: The Sacrificial Lamb’ (Coming soon to a fish fry near you).
There is no doubt that Buttigieg will grace the news cycles of the future. Regardless of his ideas (or lack thereof), he has support, talent and ambition. Like seriously, so much ambition. He won’t end up being anyone’s running mate but he’ll probably make a decent Secretary of Defence at some point. And who knows, he’s still young – #pete2028 anyone?
Image: Gage Skidmore via Flickr
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