As we approach the three year anniversary of Myanmar’s 2021 coup d’état, what have Western states done to aid the pro-democracy effort?
The 2021 coup marked the end to Myanmar’s decade-long experiment with hybrid democracy. While Myanmar held free and fair elections in 2015, an illegitimate 2008 referendum ensured that 25% parliamentary seats would be reserved for members of the Tatmadaw, Myanmar’s military. In addition, the referendum ensured that the minister of defense would continue to be controlled by military elites.
These two stipulations severely limited head of state and internationally renowned democracy advocate Aung San Suu Kyi’s rule, whose administration was marred by political inexperience and struggle with the military. Internationally, her failure to acknowledge the Rohingya genocide – the persistent killing of one of Myanmar’s Muslim ethnic minorities by the military – led to a fall from grace. This is perhaps why the international community remains more reluctant to provide aid today.
While her international reputation suffered, Suu Kyi would win another landslide victory in the 2020 election, further exposing the Tatmadaw’s unpopularity. The Tatmadaw would rule the election illegitimate without any evidence of tampering, imprisoning Suu Kyi and declaring a state of emergency to seize control of the country.
Since the coup, a brutal civil war has followed between the Tatmadaw and the successor to Suu Kyi’s party: the National Unity Government (NUG). Over 40,000 have been killed as of the date of this article (several thousand being civilians) with an additional one million displaced. Economic downturn has followed as the Tatmadaw continue to mismanage the economy and fail to bring down inflation.
Thus, what have Western states done to support the NUG, who according to the 2020 election, arguably have a stronger claim for legitimacy than the Tatmadaw? In short, not nearly enough.
While a wave of sanctions from Western states follow the coup, the European Union and other major players have failed to coordinate their sanctions. The Tatmadaw frequently change the corporate listings of their most profitable state-owned enterprises to circumvent the sanctions. Many actors, specifically those in Europe and the UK, have failed to consistently sanction these new corporate listings.
The European Union and the United States also have hundreds of millions dollars worth of Myanmar assets either frozen or held in escrow. Directing these funds towards the NUG could be critical to sustain their war effort. Additionally, key players such as Japan and Australia have failed to impose rigorous sanctions due to their own geopolitical interest, in a particularly stark contrast to the speed with which they sanctioned Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. Further condemnation of the atrocities committed by the Tatmadaw at the international stage might pressure these countries to change their stances and implement sanctions.
While sanctions have often come under criticism for being a relatively weak tool, better coordinated and economic sanctions could legitimately impact the regime. Widespread tax boycotts and a decline in revenues following the economic downturn have severely cut the Tatmadaw’s revenue, especially as it continues to increase its military budget to combat the NUG. As it stands, the Tatmadaw is becoming increasingly strapped for cash, and any additional sanctions will only hamper their military activity.
While the NUG continues to fight commendably in their fight to re-establish democracy, the international community must do more to support their effort and weaken the dictatorial military junta.
“Freedom for Aung San Suu Kyi” by Gilberto Viciedo is licensed under CC BY-NC 2.0.
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Myanmar deserves our attention
As we approach the three year anniversary of Myanmar’s 2021 coup d’état, what have Western states done to aid the pro-democracy effort?
The 2021 coup marked the end to Myanmar’s decade-long experiment with hybrid democracy. While Myanmar held free and fair elections in 2015, an illegitimate 2008 referendum ensured that 25% parliamentary seats would be reserved for members of the Tatmadaw, Myanmar’s military. In addition, the referendum ensured that the minister of defense would continue to be controlled by military elites.
These two stipulations severely limited head of state and internationally renowned democracy advocate Aung San Suu Kyi’s rule, whose administration was marred by political inexperience and struggle with the military. Internationally, her failure to acknowledge the Rohingya genocide – the persistent killing of one of Myanmar’s Muslim ethnic minorities by the military – led to a fall from grace. This is perhaps why the international community remains more reluctant to provide aid today.
While her international reputation suffered, Suu Kyi would win another landslide victory in the 2020 election, further exposing the Tatmadaw’s unpopularity. The Tatmadaw would rule the election illegitimate without any evidence of tampering, imprisoning Suu Kyi and declaring a state of emergency to seize control of the country.
Since the coup, a brutal civil war has followed between the Tatmadaw and the successor to Suu Kyi’s party: the National Unity Government (NUG). Over 40,000 have been killed as of the date of this article (several thousand being civilians) with an additional one million displaced. Economic downturn has followed as the Tatmadaw continue to mismanage the economy and fail to bring down inflation.
Thus, what have Western states done to support the NUG, who according to the 2020 election, arguably have a stronger claim for legitimacy than the Tatmadaw? In short, not nearly enough.
While a wave of sanctions from Western states follow the coup, the European Union and other major players have failed to coordinate their sanctions. The Tatmadaw frequently change the corporate listings of their most profitable state-owned enterprises to circumvent the sanctions. Many actors, specifically those in Europe and the UK, have failed to consistently sanction these new corporate listings.
The European Union and the United States also have hundreds of millions dollars worth of Myanmar assets either frozen or held in escrow. Directing these funds towards the NUG could be critical to sustain their war effort. Additionally, key players such as Japan and Australia have failed to impose rigorous sanctions due to their own geopolitical interest, in a particularly stark contrast to the speed with which they sanctioned Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. Further condemnation of the atrocities committed by the Tatmadaw at the international stage might pressure these countries to change their stances and implement sanctions.
While sanctions have often come under criticism for being a relatively weak tool, better coordinated and economic sanctions could legitimately impact the regime. Widespread tax boycotts and a decline in revenues following the economic downturn have severely cut the Tatmadaw’s revenue, especially as it continues to increase its military budget to combat the NUG. As it stands, the Tatmadaw is becoming increasingly strapped for cash, and any additional sanctions will only hamper their military activity.
While the NUG continues to fight commendably in their fight to re-establish democracy, the international community must do more to support their effort and weaken the dictatorial military junta.
“Freedom for Aung San Suu Kyi” by Gilberto Viciedo is licensed under CC BY-NC 2.0.
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