In the lead-up to the Oscars, one question that always resurfaces is — why do we even care? It’s a common trend to criticise the Oscars, whether for ignoring the year’s most popular films, skipping over international cinema, or giving awards based on awards campaigns rather than artistic merit. Undoubtedly, the Academy often makes choices that many of us deem undeserving — just try to remind any cinephile that Green Book and CODA won Best Picture over Roma and The Power of the Dog; you’re guaranteed to get a reaction of disapproval.
It is indeed difficult to defend some of the verdicts, but the Oscars can also do plenty of good for cinema. Parasite’s groundbreaking Best Picture win invited many to reach beyond English-language films. Nominations for modern masterpieces like The Zone of Interest and Nickel Boys encouraged casual film watchers to challenge their expectations and exposed them to more experimental cinema. A nomination or a win can reignite interest in a film, drawing in new audiences who might not have sought it otherwise. And perhaps most importantly, the awards season facilitates months-long conversations about our favourite films of the year. It makes the films stay with us, encouraging us to think and talk about them. The Oscars are a celebration of cinema and make film appreciation a more passionate experience shared by the film community.
Having that out of the way, the second important issue to address is how to make sense of the awards season. With the multitude of awards ceremonies, it’s easy to lose track of what each of them is. Obviously, the most prestigious and coveted awards are the Oscars, given out by the US-based Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. But what about all the other ones? Which of them can we use to predict the Oscars?
To put it simply, awards can be divided into two groups. The first group consists of industry awards, voted by those working in filmmaking. Besides the Oscars, these include the British Academy Film Awards (BAFTAs), as well as guild awards — Actors’ Guild (SAG), Directors’ Guild (DGA), etc. The second group are awards voted for by film critics and journalists, such as the US-wide Critics’ Choice Awards, and the Golden Globes, the most prestigious of the group.
Each of these awards contributes to revealing and shaping the momentum of the Oscar race. A win or a loss, a memorable or a disappointing speech, can make or break one’s Oscar chances. This year, think of Fernanda Torres winning the Golden Globe, which elevated the visibility of her film and led it to a shocking Best Picture Oscar nomination. On the other hand, film critics are known to have a more high-brow taste, recognising films that do not fare well with the Academy. Therefore, if you want to accurately predict the Oscars, turn your attention to the industry awards. In technical categories, the BAFTAs match the Oscars more often than not, and last year they correlated in all but one. When it comes to acting categories, the race for the Oscar is between the BAFTA winner and the SAG winner, although they often correlate. This year, both lead acting categories saw different winners at these two ceremonies, making the races difficult to predict.
For Best Director and Best Picture, the most accurate precursors are, respectively, the Directors’ and Producers’ Guild Awards (DGA and PGA). The DGA have correlated with the Best Director Oscar winner nine out of ten times in the past decade. The PGA, in turn, have correctly predicted seven out of ten recent winners, and are the only awards ceremony beside the Oscars to use the preferential voting system for Best Picture. These statistics make Anora a clear favourite, and any other winner would be a surprise.
Whatever happens at the Oscars, the ceremony will mark the end of a great year for cinema. The awards may be unpredictable, flawed, and even frustrating at times, but that’s part of what makes them so compelling. Whether they reward our favourites or leave us debating their choices, they remain an essential part of the film world, keeping the conversation alive and reminding us why cinema matters.
“Getting set for the Academy Awards on Hollywood Boulevard” by Castles, Capes & Clones is licensed under CC BY-ND 2.0.