The Canadian federal elections have been called for 28 April. A snap election was called by Mark Carney, the country’s prime minister and leader of the Liberal party. Pitted against Pierre Poiliviere, the leader of the Conservative party, what one might imagine as another boring Western two-party election seems to be anything but.
Justin Trudeau, the previous Liberal PM, resigned this January, with the Conservatives leading in the polls by 24 points and the Liberal party plagued by a deep anti-incumbency effect. The majority of Canadians were unsatisfied with Liberal policy, most notably a consumer Carbon tax, which voters saw as an unnecessary burden during a cost-of-living crisis.
However, the election has so far, much to the Liberals’ advantage, been characterised by the looming shadow of the Trump administration. Since Trump’s re-accession to power at the beginning of the year, he has mused over a threat to annex Canada and turn it into the “51st state.” His administration has also placed 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminium and seems intent on implementing further tariffs on 2 April.
As to be expected, this alarming and domineering behaviour has caused an explosion of anti-Trump sentiment and, by proxy, dissent for anyone the electorate has associated with Trump.
This has been disadvantageous for Poilievre; he finds himself out of favour with the electoral zeitgeist, being punished by Liberal attack ads for rhetorical similarities to Trump. Polls consistently reveal that more Canadians trust Carney over Poilievre to handle Trump and his increasingly erratic behaviour.
This perceived existential threat of Trump has created a strong rally around the flag effect. As of 27 March, the Liberals hold nearly a 3-point lead, according to CBC News.
This dramatic reversal of fortune has come at the cost of not only the Conservatives, but also the centre-left NDP party, which voters have seemingly deserted, bolstering Carney’s fortunes. This behaviour is further incentivised as a result of the Canadian majoritarian electoral system, which is First Past the Post, exactly like the UK’s.
To us, especially as students, one can easily feel powerless in this increasingly fraught global order, I think it should serve as hope that Canada looks increasingly likely to electorally reject Trump 2.0, and his neo-imperialist, Christian nationalist, misinformation-driven vision for the world.
“Mark Carney, Governor at the Scottish Council for Development & Industry, Edinburgh” by Bank of England is licensed under CC BY-ND 2.0.