For the first time in two decades, Bolivia has elected a president who is not from the left-wing Movement for Socialism (MAS), Rodrigo Paz. Arguably, change was overdue: once upon a time the MAS delivered miracle economic results. However, its economic model quite literally ran out of gas. Fossil fuel revenues collapsed in 2014, making the policies that had lifted millions from poverty unsustainable. Ever since, Bolivia has been headed for a crisis similar to the one that propelled Javier Milei to power in 2023.
Milei himself also represented a rightward shift. His victory ended more than two decades of Peronist, left-wing rule with only a brief interruption between 2015 and 2019. The parallels across Latin America don’t end there. Nayib Bukele, the authoritarian president of El Salvador, shifted the country to the right too, after an extended period of left-wing governance. Is all this evidence of a sustained broader decline in left-wing movements across Latin America?
To answer that, it helps to note that Latin America’s politics have long moved in cycles. At the turn of the century, the region experienced the first ‘pink tide,’ a wave of left-leaning governments elected on the back of disillusionment with the neoliberal policies of the 1990s. These governments benefited from a global commodity boom that allowed for redistributive spending and ambitious social programmes. Around 2010, however, the tide began to recede. Widespread corruption and voter fatigue ushered in a conservative resurgence.
Yet by 2018, a second leftward wave had begun, with Andrés Manuel López Obrador in Mexico, Alberto Fernández in Argentina and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s comeback in Brazil. Bolivia was an exception, having stayed loyal to the MAS until now. The fall of MAS may therefore be part of a second right-wing reversal, rather than a structural end to the left’s appeal. A temporary swing that could, in time, give way to a third pink tide.
There are, of course, several problems with this cyclical analysis. Just because the pattern appeared in the past does not mean it will repeat. Latin America, and the world, have changed significantly since the early 2000s. Political polarisation is far deeper, while global trade relations, particularly with the United States, increasingly shape domestic politics. Lula’s popularity, for instance, surged after the US imposed tariffs on Brazil for ideological reasons.
This line of reasoning also risks stripping agency from voters, who do not cast ballots to maintain neat cycles for academics to analyse. The left’s recent setbacks stem from a diverse range of concrete failures, from inflation in Argentina to fuel shortages in Bolivia and rising crime in Ecuador. Citizens will vote for whichever parties can address these problems, whether they lean left or right.
For now, Latin America still tilts left. Brazil and Mexico, the region’s giants, remain under progressive governments, as do Chile and Colombia. Yet the mood is shifting. If the left cannot deliver stability and competence, its dominance could unravel as swiftly as it did in Bolivia. Whether the new right can do better remains uncertain, but voters across the region have shown themselves to be more pragmatic than ideological.
“Nayib Bukele with Javier Milei, September 2024” by Casa Presidencial El Salvador is marked with CC0 1.0.
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The Shifting Fortunes of Latin America’s Left
For the first time in two decades, Bolivia has elected a president who is not from the left-wing Movement for Socialism (MAS), Rodrigo Paz. Arguably, change was overdue: once upon a time the MAS delivered miracle economic results. However, its economic model quite literally ran out of gas. Fossil fuel revenues collapsed in 2014, making the policies that had lifted millions from poverty unsustainable. Ever since, Bolivia has been headed for a crisis similar to the one that propelled Javier Milei to power in 2023.
Milei himself also represented a rightward shift. His victory ended more than two decades of Peronist, left-wing rule with only a brief interruption between 2015 and 2019. The parallels across Latin America don’t end there. Nayib Bukele, the authoritarian president of El Salvador, shifted the country to the right too, after an extended period of left-wing governance. Is all this evidence of a sustained broader decline in left-wing movements across Latin America?
To answer that, it helps to note that Latin America’s politics have long moved in cycles. At the turn of the century, the region experienced the first ‘pink tide,’ a wave of left-leaning governments elected on the back of disillusionment with the neoliberal policies of the 1990s. These governments benefited from a global commodity boom that allowed for redistributive spending and ambitious social programmes. Around 2010, however, the tide began to recede. Widespread corruption and voter fatigue ushered in a conservative resurgence.
Yet by 2018, a second leftward wave had begun, with Andrés Manuel López Obrador in Mexico, Alberto Fernández in Argentina and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s comeback in Brazil. Bolivia was an exception, having stayed loyal to the MAS until now. The fall of MAS may therefore be part of a second right-wing reversal, rather than a structural end to the left’s appeal. A temporary swing that could, in time, give way to a third pink tide.
There are, of course, several problems with this cyclical analysis. Just because the pattern appeared in the past does not mean it will repeat. Latin America, and the world, have changed significantly since the early 2000s. Political polarisation is far deeper, while global trade relations, particularly with the United States, increasingly shape domestic politics. Lula’s popularity, for instance, surged after the US imposed tariffs on Brazil for ideological reasons.
This line of reasoning also risks stripping agency from voters, who do not cast ballots to maintain neat cycles for academics to analyse. The left’s recent setbacks stem from a diverse range of concrete failures, from inflation in Argentina to fuel shortages in Bolivia and rising crime in Ecuador. Citizens will vote for whichever parties can address these problems, whether they lean left or right.
For now, Latin America still tilts left. Brazil and Mexico, the region’s giants, remain under progressive governments, as do Chile and Colombia. Yet the mood is shifting. If the left cannot deliver stability and competence, its dominance could unravel as swiftly as it did in Bolivia. Whether the new right can do better remains uncertain, but voters across the region have shown themselves to be more pragmatic than ideological.
“Nayib Bukele with Javier Milei, September 2024” by Casa Presidencial El Salvador is marked with CC0 1.0.
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