24 October saw Labour’s defeat in the Caerphilly by-election to Plaid Cymru, receiving only 11 per cent of the vote in a stronghold seat they have held for over 100 years. Responding to the result, Starmer said he understood he “has a responsibility to help out in Wales” and the party needs to “reflect and regroup” to ensure success in next year’s Senedd election. However, senior Labour sources doubt Starmer’s sincerity to act on this, arguing that he remains “absolutely delusional” about retaining Welsh support in the election next May.
Since his election last July, popular support for the Prime Minister has only declined. The most recent YouGov Poll shows 51 per cent of Britons think Starmer should stand down as leader of the Labour Party. Additionally, the cabinet is struggling to maintain a coherent public image. Disarray this week over anonymous briefings to the media, about cabinet ministers such as Health Secretary Wes Streeting plotting challenges to Starmer’s leadership, has only created scandal and worsened the public perception of what voters once considered a stable government. Therefore, the results in Caerphilly suggest that although Wales might have once seemed an inevitable win for the Labour Party, this is not guaranteed in May. To make matters worse, the reform of May’s Senedd elections next year to a proportional list system will advantage multi-party politics, which—combined with reduced popularity—could create disastrous consequences for Labour due to increasing public support for the Reform Party and Plaid Cymru.
Losing Wales seems to be a growing risk and the dire effects this could create for the Labour government cannot be underestimated. Labour has won every general election in Wales for a century, making this the longest winning streak for any party in any country in the Western World. This crucial connection is significant for maintaining unionism in the party which has been a core focus for many voters. Supporting workers and welfare has always been extended to Welsh politics, and Welsh leaders such as Nye Bevan have played a key role in building this foundation in the party. The Welsh habit of voting Labour has protected the vision of the welfare state, and has consistently been a reliable defence base especially when Scottish votes have not been. Losing such a core base will diminish faith in Starmer being able to maintain the traditional aims of the Labour party and support ordinary working people.
The significance of Wales for Labour suggests ensuring Welsh voters feel represented is of the utmost importance. One Labour source called for a “retail offer” for Welsh voters, an initiative which would have a material impact on their lives. Welsh MPs have also called for the reversal of the two-child benefit cap and taxes on family farms to represent voters. Continuing down the trajectory of appeasing more right-wing voters through a focus on immigration, so-called ‘identity politics’, and other issues will not be an effective long-term plan for Starmer and his team. Without further action to listen to Welsh voters and enact impactful legislation, the government is at fatal risk of elimination in what used to be a core stronghold.
“Prime Minister Keir Starmer host Council of Nations and Regions” by UK Prime Minister is licensed under CC BY 2.0.
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Will Labour Survive the 2026 Senedd Election?
24 October saw Labour’s defeat in the Caerphilly by-election to Plaid Cymru, receiving only 11 per cent of the vote in a stronghold seat they have held for over 100 years. Responding to the result, Starmer said he understood he “has a responsibility to help out in Wales” and the party needs to “reflect and regroup” to ensure success in next year’s Senedd election. However, senior Labour sources doubt Starmer’s sincerity to act on this, arguing that he remains “absolutely delusional” about retaining Welsh support in the election next May.
Since his election last July, popular support for the Prime Minister has only declined. The most recent YouGov Poll shows 51 per cent of Britons think Starmer should stand down as leader of the Labour Party. Additionally, the cabinet is struggling to maintain a coherent public image. Disarray this week over anonymous briefings to the media, about cabinet ministers such as Health Secretary Wes Streeting plotting challenges to Starmer’s leadership, has only created scandal and worsened the public perception of what voters once considered a stable government. Therefore, the results in Caerphilly suggest that although Wales might have once seemed an inevitable win for the Labour Party, this is not guaranteed in May. To make matters worse, the reform of May’s Senedd elections next year to a proportional list system will advantage multi-party politics, which—combined with reduced popularity—could create disastrous consequences for Labour due to increasing public support for the Reform Party and Plaid Cymru.
Losing Wales seems to be a growing risk and the dire effects this could create for the Labour government cannot be underestimated. Labour has won every general election in Wales for a century, making this the longest winning streak for any party in any country in the Western World. This crucial connection is significant for maintaining unionism in the party which has been a core focus for many voters. Supporting workers and welfare has always been extended to Welsh politics, and Welsh leaders such as Nye Bevan have played a key role in building this foundation in the party. The Welsh habit of voting Labour has protected the vision of the welfare state, and has consistently been a reliable defence base especially when Scottish votes have not been. Losing such a core base will diminish faith in Starmer being able to maintain the traditional aims of the Labour party and support ordinary working people.
The significance of Wales for Labour suggests ensuring Welsh voters feel represented is of the utmost importance. One Labour source called for a “retail offer” for Welsh voters, an initiative which would have a material impact on their lives. Welsh MPs have also called for the reversal of the two-child benefit cap and taxes on family farms to represent voters. Continuing down the trajectory of appeasing more right-wing voters through a focus on immigration, so-called ‘identity politics’, and other issues will not be an effective long-term plan for Starmer and his team. Without further action to listen to Welsh voters and enact impactful legislation, the government is at fatal risk of elimination in what used to be a core stronghold.
“Prime Minister Keir Starmer host Council of Nations and Regions” by UK Prime Minister is licensed under CC BY 2.0.
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