A couple of weeks ago, Mark Carney, the prime minister of Canada, made one of the most talked about political speeches in recent history at the annual Davos summit in Switzerland. In his speech he claimed that the old rules-based-in-name-but-U.S.-led-in-reality world order is over and appealed to other “middle powers” to follow Canada’s example in beginning to distance themselves from the U.S..
From an oratorical point of view, the speech is certainly the most memorable of recent times when we are more used to world leaders speaking in sound bites rather than coherent prose, but as for whether the speech will be remembered as the great world-altering, watershed moment some are claiming it is, it may still be too early to tell.
In the most extreme scenario, Carney will be remembered as the first Western leader brave enough to declare that the emperor has no clothes and is parading naked around the city square. In declaring that the old world order is over, Carney will have committed the act of ending it: when a system is held together only by people’s belief in it, all it takes is someone to break the illusion to make the whole system crumble.
In a less extreme scenario, while not instantly world-altering, this speech will be regarded as an indicator of a key turning point in international foreign policy. When writing the story of human history, it is in our nature to choose specific dates to peg huge social shifts on. We know that, in reality, any large social changes are the results of a whole spider’s web of events each rippling off and affecting the other, but for the sake of storytelling we suspend this belief and think only in terms of A neatly causing B. In this scenario Carney will be remembered in this way: bringing out into the open the change that was already coming.
The third possible scenario is that Carney’s speech will quickly be forgotten as his words prove to be empty and the “middle powers” he appealed to resolutely ignore what he said and carry on business as usual. However, looking at events before and after Carney’s speech I believe we can conclude that we are heading towards the second scenario.
Since his speech, Carney’s ratings at home have soared and he is quickly making good on his word to open Canada to a more diverse world of trade, which currently ships 76 per cent of its exports to the U.S.. Trump has claimed that, in a phone call they shared in the days after Davos, Carney went back on the content of his speech, but Carney has since reaffirmed that he “meant what he said” and that he is seeking to double non-U.S. trade in the next decade. Carney’s recent trip to China has had good results in establishing new trade deals with a country with which it has previously had icy relations. Canadian tariffs on Chinese EVs dropped from 100 per cent to 6.1 per cent and in return China has dropped tariffs on Canadian agricultural goods.
So, will the rest of the “middle powers” follow suit? In relation to the U.K., Keir Starmer has said that when it comes to this matter he is being a “British pragmatist,” which seems to translate into meaning that he is sticking by the U.S.’s side for the moment. I think that many other countries will also still be too nervous to follow Canada, especially when stepping out of line can face such harsh retaliation from the Trump administration. But when Canada’s prospects improve, and I’m sure they will, it will only be natural that other countries begin to follow suit.
There were many hypocrisies in Carney’s speech, some of which he acknowledged. Carney admitted that everyone secretly knew that a “rules-based” order in fact meant an American-led one. For many years, this open secret has suited the other Western powers because they benefited from the arrangement, but now that the U.S. has shown it no longer has anyone else’s interest in mind but its own, the old allies are beginning to realise what the Global South has known all along: that since the end of WW2 we’ve lived not in an age of internationalism but one of American Empire. The history books may remember Carney’s speech as the first step in the direction away from an American-led world order and perhaps with enough nerve, the rest of the West may now be able to pursue a more moral foreign policy when it no longer has to bend to the global bully’s will.
“Mark Carney, Governor at the Scottish Council for Development & Industry, Edinburgh” by Bank of England is licensed under CC BY-ND 2.0.
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Carney appeals to the Western “middle powers” to Reject the Old U.S.-led World Order, but will they listen?
A couple of weeks ago, Mark Carney, the prime minister of Canada, made one of the most talked about political speeches in recent history at the annual Davos summit in Switzerland. In his speech he claimed that the old rules-based-in-name-but-U.S.-led-in-reality world order is over and appealed to other “middle powers” to follow Canada’s example in beginning to distance themselves from the U.S..
From an oratorical point of view, the speech is certainly the most memorable of recent times when we are more used to world leaders speaking in sound bites rather than coherent prose, but as for whether the speech will be remembered as the great world-altering, watershed moment some are claiming it is, it may still be too early to tell.
In the most extreme scenario, Carney will be remembered as the first Western leader brave enough to declare that the emperor has no clothes and is parading naked around the city square. In declaring that the old world order is over, Carney will have committed the act of ending it: when a system is held together only by people’s belief in it, all it takes is someone to break the illusion to make the whole system crumble.
In a less extreme scenario, while not instantly world-altering, this speech will be regarded as an indicator of a key turning point in international foreign policy. When writing the story of human history, it is in our nature to choose specific dates to peg huge social shifts on. We know that, in reality, any large social changes are the results of a whole spider’s web of events each rippling off and affecting the other, but for the sake of storytelling we suspend this belief and think only in terms of A neatly causing B. In this scenario Carney will be remembered in this way: bringing out into the open the change that was already coming.
The third possible scenario is that Carney’s speech will quickly be forgotten as his words prove to be empty and the “middle powers” he appealed to resolutely ignore what he said and carry on business as usual. However, looking at events before and after Carney’s speech I believe we can conclude that we are heading towards the second scenario.
Since his speech, Carney’s ratings at home have soared and he is quickly making good on his word to open Canada to a more diverse world of trade, which currently ships 76 per cent of its exports to the U.S.. Trump has claimed that, in a phone call they shared in the days after Davos, Carney went back on the content of his speech, but Carney has since reaffirmed that he “meant what he said” and that he is seeking to double non-U.S. trade in the next decade. Carney’s recent trip to China has had good results in establishing new trade deals with a country with which it has previously had icy relations. Canadian tariffs on Chinese EVs dropped from 100 per cent to 6.1 per cent and in return China has dropped tariffs on Canadian agricultural goods.
So, will the rest of the “middle powers” follow suit? In relation to the U.K., Keir Starmer has said that when it comes to this matter he is being a “British pragmatist,” which seems to translate into meaning that he is sticking by the U.S.’s side for the moment. I think that many other countries will also still be too nervous to follow Canada, especially when stepping out of line can face such harsh retaliation from the Trump administration. But when Canada’s prospects improve, and I’m sure they will, it will only be natural that other countries begin to follow suit.
There were many hypocrisies in Carney’s speech, some of which he acknowledged. Carney admitted that everyone secretly knew that a “rules-based” order in fact meant an American-led one. For many years, this open secret has suited the other Western powers because they benefited from the arrangement, but now that the U.S. has shown it no longer has anyone else’s interest in mind but its own, the old allies are beginning to realise what the Global South has known all along: that since the end of WW2 we’ve lived not in an age of internationalism but one of American Empire. The history books may remember Carney’s speech as the first step in the direction away from an American-led world order and perhaps with enough nerve, the rest of the West may now be able to pursue a more moral foreign policy when it no longer has to bend to the global bully’s will.
“Mark Carney, Governor at the Scottish Council for Development & Industry, Edinburgh” by Bank of England is licensed under CC BY-ND 2.0.
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