Starting with the surefire winners, Irish-born actress and lead actor of Hamnet (2026) Jessie Buckley has taken home the Golden Globe, the BAFTA and the Critics’ Choice Award for Best Actress in the lead up to the Oscars. No one has more momentum approaching 15 March than she does. As for Best Original Score, certain oddsmakers have Sinners (2025) at a ridiculous chance of winning against 33 competitors. Not only is composer Ludwig Göransson a two-time Oscar winner for scores in the last decade, but he has also been on a roll, claiming awards before the upcoming show. Guillermo Del Toro’s retelling of Mary Shelley’s gothic novella has received universal acclaim for its art direction, with the titular monster being a marvel of practical effects. Like the prior example, many viewers are placing bets on Frankenstein (2025) to take home the awards for Best Makeup and Hairstyling and Best Costume Design.
Safe bets for this Academy Awards season include the Hollywood smash hit of last year, Kpop Demon Hunters (2025). Their only realistic challenger is Zootropolis 2 (2025), and although we have seen The Academy have a soft spot for Disney in the past, their grip on the award has slipped in the last five years, putting them on the back burner. Paul Thomas Anderson and Ryan Coogler are also contenders for guaranteed winners, as they have been trading awards leading up to the Oscars. However, PTA taking Best Director for One Battle After Another (2025) at the Golden Globes should give him the momentum he needs to pull away in front. Stellan Skarsgård is not an impossible winner for Best Supporting Actor, but Sean Penn’s similar hot streak of awards to PTA puts him in a primed spot to pick up the award. Jacob Elordi does have a few awards to boast about; however, his unconventional role as Frankenstein’s Monster may put him at a disadvantage when it comes to mainstream recognition.
Moving on to the dark horses of this year’s nominees; It Was Just an Accident’s (2025) sweeping film festival success foreshadows a win for Best International Feature Film. While Sentimental Value (2025) and The Secret Agent (2025) are the two frontrunners, the film’s relevant look at life under oppression in Iran makes this a silent contender that more people should pay attention to. A few weeks ago, Best Actor would seem like Timothée Chalamet’s award to win, but Marty Supreme’s record-breaking bad night at the BAFTAs has flatlined his momentum. Michael B. Jordan would appear to be the second-best choice, but I would not rule out Wagner Moura becoming the first South American-born Best Actor winner. Lastly, while One Battle After Another and Sinners are sweeping epics, Hamnet feels much more like the small but poignant Best Picture winners of the last five years, such as Coda (2021) and Nomadland (2020). If The King’s Speech (2010) can pull off an underdog Best Picture win over Inception and The Social Network in 2011, so can Hamnet.
Photo by Global Panorama on Openverse.