After this weekend’s Australian Grand Prix, some Formula One fans have jumped to the conclusion that “the season is over,” due to Mercedes’ strong race pace. This is partly understandable, as Mercedes upheld their label of pre-season favourites by finishing 1-2 in the race, and with George Russell qualifying nearly eight tenths ahead of the fastest non-Mercedes car. However, it is far too early to draw any conclusions about the 2026 F1 season, with 23 races left and plenty to fight for.
Generally, teams develop throughout the whole season, so any gap that Mercedes seem to have at the moment will likely be reduced as rival teams become more competitive.
In Melbourne, Ferrari looked to be close to Mercedes, with Charles Leclerc making an impressive start and battling Russell for P1 until a pit stop strategy error took Leclerc out of contention for the race win. This still suggests that we can expect many close battles between Ferrari and Mercedes this season, so the championship remains an open question for now.
Additionally, we are yet to see the true potential of the Red Bull, as Max Verstappen started his race from the back after a qualifying crash, while Isack Hadjar was harshly forced to retire early due to an engine failure. The same could be argued for McLaren, with home favourite Oscar Piastri not starting Sunday’s race after crashing on the reconnaissance lap.
Nevertheless, the opening race of an F1 season is nothing to go by, with the first race winner far from guaranteed to win the world championship. Since 2010, the winner of the first race has only become world champion six times (2011, 2015, 2016, 2023, 2024, 2025).
After the first three races in 2022, Leclerc led the world championship by a comfortable margin of 34 points, winning two of the first three races. However, Verstappen responded by winning 14 of the next 19 races to dominate the rest of the season.
In 2017 and 2018, Ferrari’s Sebastian Vettel won the opening race of the season, but was beaten each year to the world championship by Lewis Hamilton.
2012 will be remembered as one of the most unpredictable starts to an F1 season, with seven different race winners in the first seven races. This made conclusions even harder to draw, with eventual champion Sebastian Vettel only sitting third in the standings at the halfway stage of the season.
Moreover, in 2010, defending champion Jenson Button led the standings after the opening five races, but was only able to finish fifth in the championship.
Overall, if history can tell us anything, it’s that nothing is guaranteed in Formula One. While Mercedes and George Russell appear to be in a strong position following Australia’s season opener, Ferrari are expected to battle them closely, though we are yet to fully see what Red Bull and McLaren can offer. We have a long, exciting season ahead before we crown our champion.