Leading up to the ‘pre-emptive’ strikes launched by U.S. and Israeli forces on Iran, to many of us politics nerds watching the region it felt as though they were approaching a settled deal, one that would provide greater security to the region, limiting Iran’s nuclear capabilities and offering a framework of peace between Israel and Iran. Yet Trump, deciding it necessary to decapitate the Iranian government, launched the U.S. into yet another Middle Eastern war without appearing to consider the full consequences of doing so.
The precedent of Iran’s willingness to negotiate with global powers in Obama’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, limiting nuclear proliferation, that Trump tore up in his first term, suggests that there exists a world in which peace with Iran can be created and maintained through diplomatic means. Hence, it feels like an extreme and chaotic decision to bombard Iran with bombs and missiles to achieve US-Israeli ends.
Unsurprisingly, the consequences of this attack, while effective at taking out the head of an evil regime, has been to push Iran into absolute survival mode. Stretched for resources, they are attempting maximum damage on America, Israel, and their allies, through economic warfare in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on American and allied bases in the region. It feels as though the U.S. is now stuck, again, in a conflict without clear goals or an end and no clear benefit to the U.S. itself. As a result, Trump himself is now stuck in a political mess he cannot lie his way out of.
If Trump decides to deescalate the conflict through diplomatic routes it would appear as a clear admission of defeat for the U.S., an acceptance that they could not bring down the Iranian government. I would be surprised if in the coming weeks we saw an attempt from the U.S. or Israel to pursue diplomacy in the region. Even with calls throughout NATO to do so, Trump is not the type of character to cut his losses while he can, anything that makes the President appear weak is an unnegotiable line to not cross.
Alternatively, the U.S. and Israel could pursue short-term peace through regime change, an idea flirted with in the early days of the war. However, regime change does not come from dropping bombs and missiles, what would be necessary is an Iraq-style ground invasion.
Although certain military difficulties, it would be an effective means to end the short-term conflict through a total upheaval of Iranian power structures. However, this too would be deeply politically unpopular, given it signals to the U.S. electorate Trump’s inability to keep promises, to end the ‘forever wars’ that become a cornerstone of his 2024 campaign. If he lost the House and Senate as a result, Trump would be an immobile president.
For now, all that is clear is the U.S. has again stuck itself in black hole foreign policy, and in return have only helped to make the case to other countries for nuclear proliferation, whilst cementing a hatred for the West that will only invigorate the regime and convince the next Iranian generation that for them there is no security without nuclear security.
“Parade of IRGC tank transporters” by Mohammad Sadegh Heydari is licensed under CC BY 4.0.
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Israel and America’s War on Iran: A Remarkable Lack of Thought
Leading up to the ‘pre-emptive’ strikes launched by U.S. and Israeli forces on Iran, to many of us politics nerds watching the region it felt as though they were approaching a settled deal, one that would provide greater security to the region, limiting Iran’s nuclear capabilities and offering a framework of peace between Israel and Iran. Yet Trump, deciding it necessary to decapitate the Iranian government, launched the U.S. into yet another Middle Eastern war without appearing to consider the full consequences of doing so.
The precedent of Iran’s willingness to negotiate with global powers in Obama’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, limiting nuclear proliferation, that Trump tore up in his first term, suggests that there exists a world in which peace with Iran can be created and maintained through diplomatic means. Hence, it feels like an extreme and chaotic decision to bombard Iran with bombs and missiles to achieve US-Israeli ends.
Unsurprisingly, the consequences of this attack, while effective at taking out the head of an evil regime, has been to push Iran into absolute survival mode. Stretched for resources, they are attempting maximum damage on America, Israel, and their allies, through economic warfare in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on American and allied bases in the region. It feels as though the U.S. is now stuck, again, in a conflict without clear goals or an end and no clear benefit to the U.S. itself. As a result, Trump himself is now stuck in a political mess he cannot lie his way out of.
If Trump decides to deescalate the conflict through diplomatic routes it would appear as a clear admission of defeat for the U.S., an acceptance that they could not bring down the Iranian government. I would be surprised if in the coming weeks we saw an attempt from the U.S. or Israel to pursue diplomacy in the region. Even with calls throughout NATO to do so, Trump is not the type of character to cut his losses while he can, anything that makes the President appear weak is an unnegotiable line to not cross.
Alternatively, the U.S. and Israel could pursue short-term peace through regime change, an idea flirted with in the early days of the war. However, regime change does not come from dropping bombs and missiles, what would be necessary is an Iraq-style ground invasion.
Although certain military difficulties, it would be an effective means to end the short-term conflict through a total upheaval of Iranian power structures. However, this too would be deeply politically unpopular, given it signals to the U.S. electorate Trump’s inability to keep promises, to end the ‘forever wars’ that become a cornerstone of his 2024 campaign. If he lost the House and Senate as a result, Trump would be an immobile president.
For now, all that is clear is the U.S. has again stuck itself in black hole foreign policy, and in return have only helped to make the case to other countries for nuclear proliferation, whilst cementing a hatred for the West that will only invigorate the regime and convince the next Iranian generation that for them there is no security without nuclear security.
“Parade of IRGC tank transporters” by Mohammad Sadegh Heydari is licensed under CC BY 4.0.
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