Nicola Sturgeon is one of the most effective communicators of modern political discourse. Seen ever so clearly during the pandemic when her clear and concise Covid briefings contrasted markedly from the bumbling Johnson in Number 10. By using her ability to dissimilate herself from a tumultuous Downing Street, Sturgeon was rewarded in the polls, with the longest sustained period of a pro-independence majority seen in her reign during the first year of Covid. The independence movement relied on the figurehead of Sturgeon at its helm: the reason was that there was no one else who could rally the nationalist vote like her. The pitiful thing is – that is still the case today.
The incoming candidates have shown time and time again they’re a marked step down from the outgoing First Minister. The front-runners Kate Forbes and Humza Yousaf were both embroiled in controversy from the outset of their campaigns with respect to their stances on gay rights. Forbes admitted that if she was an MSP in 2014 when the same-sex marriage bill was going through the Scottish Parliament, she would have voted against it due to conflicts with her faith.
Yousaf, a practising Muslim, and MSP in 2014, also came under fire for missing the final vote on same-sex marriage after stating he was unable to attend due to a ministerial engagement. This comes despite other party figures, including former First Minister Alex Salmond, claiming he missed it due to pressure from the Mosque.
Ash Regan, while only holding one endorsement, has somehow successfully managed to establish some name recognition for herself after resigning as Community Safety minister due to disagreements with the Gender Reform Bill, albeit with some bizarre remarks of her own.
One thing none of the candidates have allowed to slip is their incessant drive for Scottish independence – a line which the Scottish public have been tired of hearing. YouGov polling has shown consistent failings for the independence movement, dropping to just over 40 per cent of voters saying they would vote ‘Yes’, well down on just last year when there were six polls in a row showing a majority for ending the Union. Recent figures have also revealed party membership has fallen a staggering 42 per cent since 2019, a clear indictment by independence supporters of their faith in the party.
This perpetual yearning for independence is what will cost the SNP dearly in the next election. Further YouGov polling has recently shown surges in the Labour vote in Scotland, throwing at least fifteen SNP/Labour marginals in the central belt into contention – seats which are cornerstone to any future Labour government in Westminster and Holyrood.
Whoever the winner of the SNP leadership contest, the independence movement is set back years. If there is to be any hope of resurrection in the nationalist crusade it must be immediate, or the poaching of pivotal seats by Scottish Labour will make it incredibly hard for the SNP to push their mandate past 2024.
It will be very challenging for the new First Minister to command the nationalist movement as Sturgeon has done so well, for so long, whilst maintaining the SNP’s dominance as Scotland’s foremost political power.
“Scottish Independence Rally, George Square, Glasgow, 2019 1” by LornaMCampbell is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0.
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Inheriting a dying independence movement
Nicola Sturgeon is one of the most effective communicators of modern political discourse. Seen ever so clearly during the pandemic when her clear and concise Covid briefings contrasted markedly from the bumbling Johnson in Number 10. By using her ability to dissimilate herself from a tumultuous Downing Street, Sturgeon was rewarded in the polls, with the longest sustained period of a pro-independence majority seen in her reign during the first year of Covid. The independence movement relied on the figurehead of Sturgeon at its helm: the reason was that there was no one else who could rally the nationalist vote like her. The pitiful thing is – that is still the case today.
The incoming candidates have shown time and time again they’re a marked step down from the outgoing First Minister. The front-runners Kate Forbes and Humza Yousaf were both embroiled in controversy from the outset of their campaigns with respect to their stances on gay rights. Forbes admitted that if she was an MSP in 2014 when the same-sex marriage bill was going through the Scottish Parliament, she would have voted against it due to conflicts with her faith.
Yousaf, a practising Muslim, and MSP in 2014, also came under fire for missing the final vote on same-sex marriage after stating he was unable to attend due to a ministerial engagement. This comes despite other party figures, including former First Minister Alex Salmond, claiming he missed it due to pressure from the Mosque.
Ash Regan, while only holding one endorsement, has somehow successfully managed to establish some name recognition for herself after resigning as Community Safety minister due to disagreements with the Gender Reform Bill, albeit with some bizarre remarks of her own.
One thing none of the candidates have allowed to slip is their incessant drive for Scottish independence – a line which the Scottish public have been tired of hearing. YouGov polling has shown consistent failings for the independence movement, dropping to just over 40 per cent of voters saying they would vote ‘Yes’, well down on just last year when there were six polls in a row showing a majority for ending the Union. Recent figures have also revealed party membership has fallen a staggering 42 per cent since 2019, a clear indictment by independence supporters of their faith in the party.
This perpetual yearning for independence is what will cost the SNP dearly in the next election. Further YouGov polling has recently shown surges in the Labour vote in Scotland, throwing at least fifteen SNP/Labour marginals in the central belt into contention – seats which are cornerstone to any future Labour government in Westminster and Holyrood.
Whoever the winner of the SNP leadership contest, the independence movement is set back years. If there is to be any hope of resurrection in the nationalist crusade it must be immediate, or the poaching of pivotal seats by Scottish Labour will make it incredibly hard for the SNP to push their mandate past 2024.
It will be very challenging for the new First Minister to command the nationalist movement as Sturgeon has done so well, for so long, whilst maintaining the SNP’s dominance as Scotland’s foremost political power.
“Scottish Independence Rally, George Square, Glasgow, 2019 1” by LornaMCampbell is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0.
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