The Senedd has been under Labour control for a quarter of a century, since its inception in 1999. Yet now that legacy hangs in the unsteady hands of Keir Starmer, for the first time in history, the polls suggest that Labour is on track to lose Wales and with it, risk handing the victory to Reform UK. The symbolism of such a defeat would mark not only a political loss, but a dramatic shift in Wales from its liberal roots towards the grip of the far right.
Last week’s polls revealed that Labour has dropped from being the most popular party to third place, holding only 14 per cent of the publics’ votes. This is the lowest recorded figure in the history of devolution for Labour, a collapse from their historic dominance of the Senedd, where they had always commanded at least 30 per cent of votes and a consistent majority. With less than eight months until the election, the scale of this decline feels almost impossible to reverse. Every day, public frustration with Keir Starmer, who many see as the architect of Labour’s rightward shift, only hardens.
Above Labour, sit Reform UK, with 29 per cent of the vote, and Plaid Cymru, with 30 per cent. That contest alone is a damning indictment, with Reform’s surge showing how far Welsh politics has been dragged to the right and Plaid’s rise reflecting deep dissatisfaction with Westminster Labour. The very idea that Wales, a country long defined by a commitment to fairness and social progress, could see Reform in government should ring alarm bells. Their politics, rooted in division and regressive social policy, represent a distinct threat to the values Wales has embodied for decades. With voters faced with the choice between nationalism and the far right, there is a risk of a disillusioned electorate retreating further from the ballot box altogether.
Growing up in the Welsh education system, shaped by policies only possible under a devolved, progressive government, I felt first-hand the difference it made. Mental health support for young people was prioritised, resources were put in place for children with additional learning needs, and more recently, GCSE structures have been adapted to ease stress and anxiety for teenagers around exams. This is the Wales I know, a country that invests in compassion, fairness, and opportunity. To imagine those values slipping away under a Reform-governed Senedd is painful.
Catherine Foukes, the Labour MP representing my home county of Monmouthshire, puts it starkly: “Wales is set to become a Reform-Labour battleground”. She acknowledges the sense of malaise and mistrust pushing people towards populism and is unflinching about the challenge: “There is no change card to be played here. The answer is to ensure that Labour policies make a tangible difference to people’s lives.”
Labour in Wales has always been more than just a political party. It has been the guardian of working-class identity, trade union strength, and cultural pride. While the actions of the national party leader, Keir Starmer, have detrimentally weakened this symbolism for many, including myself, the absence of a strong liberal alternative leaves me deeply concerned for what might take its place. The questions remain: will Wales endure with a liberal heart, and who will rise to protect it?
“Cardiff Bay, Pierhead, Millennium Centre, Senedd” by Richard Szwejkowski is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.
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From Progress to Populism: Will Starmer be the first to lose the Senedd since its creation?
The Senedd has been under Labour control for a quarter of a century, since its inception in 1999. Yet now that legacy hangs in the unsteady hands of Keir Starmer, for the first time in history, the polls suggest that Labour is on track to lose Wales and with it, risk handing the victory to Reform UK. The symbolism of such a defeat would mark not only a political loss, but a dramatic shift in Wales from its liberal roots towards the grip of the far right.
Last week’s polls revealed that Labour has dropped from being the most popular party to third place, holding only 14 per cent of the publics’ votes. This is the lowest recorded figure in the history of devolution for Labour, a collapse from their historic dominance of the Senedd, where they had always commanded at least 30 per cent of votes and a consistent majority. With less than eight months until the election, the scale of this decline feels almost impossible to reverse. Every day, public frustration with Keir Starmer, who many see as the architect of Labour’s rightward shift, only hardens.
Above Labour, sit Reform UK, with 29 per cent of the vote, and Plaid Cymru, with 30 per cent. That contest alone is a damning indictment, with Reform’s surge showing how far Welsh politics has been dragged to the right and Plaid’s rise reflecting deep dissatisfaction with Westminster Labour. The very idea that Wales, a country long defined by a commitment to fairness and social progress, could see Reform in government should ring alarm bells. Their politics, rooted in division and regressive social policy, represent a distinct threat to the values Wales has embodied for decades. With voters faced with the choice between nationalism and the far right, there is a risk of a disillusioned electorate retreating further from the ballot box altogether.
Growing up in the Welsh education system, shaped by policies only possible under a devolved, progressive government, I felt first-hand the difference it made. Mental health support for young people was prioritised, resources were put in place for children with additional learning needs, and more recently, GCSE structures have been adapted to ease stress and anxiety for teenagers around exams. This is the Wales I know, a country that invests in compassion, fairness, and opportunity. To imagine those values slipping away under a Reform-governed Senedd is painful.
Catherine Foukes, the Labour MP representing my home county of Monmouthshire, puts it starkly: “Wales is set to become a Reform-Labour battleground”. She acknowledges the sense of malaise and mistrust pushing people towards populism and is unflinching about the challenge: “There is no change card to be played here. The answer is to ensure that Labour policies make a tangible difference to people’s lives.”
Labour in Wales has always been more than just a political party. It has been the guardian of working-class identity, trade union strength, and cultural pride. While the actions of the national party leader, Keir Starmer, have detrimentally weakened this symbolism for many, including myself, the absence of a strong liberal alternative leaves me deeply concerned for what might take its place. The questions remain: will Wales endure with a liberal heart, and who will rise to protect it?
“Cardiff Bay, Pierhead, Millennium Centre, Senedd” by Richard Szwejkowski is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.
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