If you were in the UK or Europe this summer, you will have noticed that the weather was particularly balmy. In fact, this summer the global temperature rose to 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels — the joint hottest month ever recorded, tied with July 2023. There are two key reasons for this sharp rise: human-caused climate change, and a climatic phenomenon known as El Niño. You may have come across headlines about a “super El Niño” causing “global chaos.” But what does this actually mean?
El Niño is a natural climate pattern characterised by a rise in surface temperature of 0.5°C over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, whilst a “super” El Niño occurs when this temperature rise is 2°C or more. The presence of warmer air above the ocean leads to changes in weather patterns, such as drier weather in the southern hemisphere and a weakening of the Indian monsoon. In the UK, this led to a scorching summer and is expected to cause colder spells towards the beginning of 2027 alongside an increased risk of tropical storms.
Because of their varied nature, scientists struggle to connect the intensity of El Niño phases with climate change. However, according to a recent study, current El Niño sea surface temperature extremes appear to have intensified by around 10 per cent compared to pre-1960 levels, suggesting a link with fossil fuel consumption. But whether this is true or not, one fact is undeniable — climate change is causing UK summers to become warmer. The Met Office predicts that by 2070, summers could be between 1 and 6°C warmer on average.
As lovely as it is to have some warm weather in Scotland for a change, extreme heat can have some serious impacts. The UK Health Security Agency reported an estimated 2,877 heatwave-related deaths in May and June alone. The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board has released its initial estimates, which suggest UK wheat yields will be “notably low.” This has led them to predict that the 2026 harvest will be the worst on record. And the persistent drought over the summer led to raging wildfires across the country, including two locally on Arthur’s Seat over the summer.
So what do we need to do? Obviously, we need to establish global policies to help slow down climate change and reverse the pre-existing temperature rise. But in the meantime, we should find ways to adapt to warmer temperatures and drier weather. We should install air conditioning in homes and public buildings, establish maximum temperature rules for schools and workplaces, and plan urban areas to provide more shade and ventilation.
Photo by Neil Thomas on Unsplash.
