In the Original Screenplay category, one film aims higher and reaches further than the rest. That film is Anora, a deconstruction of a modern Cinderella tale, delivered in an entertaining and intelligent manner. Sean Baker, who specialises in telling stories about underprivileged people in America, has reached the height of his craft and seems poised to finally receive recognition from the Academy. Although he surprisingly lost out on a BAFTA win to A Real Pain, Anora’s overall frontrunner status should secure it the Oscar in this category.
The BAFTA win paints A Real Pain as a potential upset. However, this wry comedy about family relationships and Jewish identity is not nominated for Best Picture — a weakness that should prevent it from snatching the Oscar from Anora. Another possible surprise could come from The Substance, which was awarded for screenplay at the Cannes Film Festival and the Critics Choice Awards. It would align with the recent trend of awarding genre-bending films with the intangible label of “originality” — but Anora fits this description just as well.
The two films with little realistic chance of winning are The Brutalist and September 5. The former is one of the season’s juggernauts, but it’s appreciated more for its overall artistic vision and technical achievements rather than screenplay. The latter, a journalistic thriller reliant on multilingualism, is a compelling addition to the lineup but is clearly the least likely to secure votes.
Will Win: Anora
Should Win: Anora
“Sean Baker at the 2024 Toronto International Film Festival” by Frank Sun is licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0.