The past decade has witnessed several surprising upsets in the Academy Awards’ Best Picture category. Films like Moonlight triumphing over La La Land, Parasite defeating 1917, Green Book surpassing Roma, and CODA besting The Power of the Dog have created some of the most interesting Oscar races in recent memory. While some of these winners have solidified their place as cinematic masterpieces, others have failed to withstand the test of time. Though these outcomes might seem unexpected, they can be largely attributed to the Academy’s unique voting methodology for Best Picture—a system that owes its existence to last year’s Best Picture winner Christopher Nolan.
The Dark Knight Effect
The catalyst for change in Oscar voting procedures can be traced back to 2009. When Christopher Nolan’s critically acclaimed The Dark Knight failed to secure a Best Picture nomination, likely losing it to The Reader, the resulting public outcry prompted the Academy to take decisive action. After 65 years of limiting the Best Picture category to five nominees, the Academy’s board of governors voted to expand the category to ten nominees. This expansion aimed to increase the likelihood of popular, culturally significant films like The Dark Knight receiving recognition in the Academy’s most prestigious category. Though the exact number has fluctuated over the years, it currently stands at ten nominees.
The Preferential Ballot
Alongside expanding the nominee pool, the Academy implemented a critical change to how winners are determined. Recognising that a polarizing film could potentially win with minimal passionate support, they revived a voting system abandoned in 1944: the preferential ballot. This system, reintroduced in 2009 and still employed today, is designed to ensure that the Best Picture winner reflects the broader consensus of Academy voters. It’s worth noting that while only the Best Picture winner is determined by the preferential ballot at the final stage, all category nominations are selected using this preferential system during the nominating phase.
The preferential ballot asks Academy members to rank all Best Picture nominees from most to least preferred. Once submitted, accountants from PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) sort the ballots based on first-choice votes. If one film immediately receives more than 50% of first-place votes, it wins outright. However, this rarely occurs with ten nominees competing.
When no film achieves this majority, the accountants implement an instant-runoff voting process:
- The film with the fewest first-choice votes is eliminated.
- Ballots that had the eliminated film as first choice are redistributed according to their second choices.
- If a voter’s second choice has already been eliminated, their third choice is considered, and so on.
- This process continues, eliminating films and redistributing votes, until one film accumulates more than 50% of the ballots.
This system significantly benefits films with broad appeal—what many would call a “consensus” pick. While a film might not be many voters’ first choice, if it consistently appears as their second or third preference, it could ultimately triumph over more divisive contenders that have some passionate but limited support.
The Academy’s preferences in Best Picture and other categories have also been influenced by shifts following the #OscarsSoWhite controversy. It has been 10 years since #OscarsSoWhite emerged in 2015, when all 20 acting nominees were white. In response, the Academy launched an initiative in 2016 to expand its membership and increase diversity.
The Evolving Academy Demographics
Last year, the Academy extended invitations to 487 industry professionals to become members. Indiewire reports that should all invitees accept, the Academy’s membership would total 10,910 individuals, with 9,934 voting members for the Academy Awards. Following the inclusion of the 2024 class of members, the demographic composition of the Academy would be like the followings: women now constitute 35 percent of the membership, individuals from underrepresented racial and ethnic backgrounds make up 20 percent, and international members from outside the United States also represent 20 percent of the total membership.
This growing international contingent, now representing 20 percent of the voting membership, has potentially added a more international and arthouse sensibility to the traditionally American-dominated voting body. Many believe this demographic shift contributed to wins such as Parasite for Best Picture, and acting victories for Olivia Colman and Anthony Hopkins over American favorites like Glenn Close and the late Chadwick Boseman. These combined factors, namely the preferential ballot system and the Academy’s evolving membership, continue to shape Oscar outcomes in increasingly unpredictable ways. Unless there is a picture like Oppenheimer which swept every award imaginable, there is always a chance of upset when the envelope is opened. For good and for bad, it makes every race more interesting.
Illustration by Tiana Sung @tianadraws
