In late February, the Green Party picked up the most notable victory in their history by defeating not only Reform but also Labour in their own stronghold, winning the Gorton and Denton seat for Parliament. The Greens’ ability to surpass the slim win pollsters expected out of them should stomp out any remaining believers that they are just a gimmick party that can’t seriously challenge elections in England. So, how should Scottish parties be feeling about the Scottish Parliament Elections in May?
The most interesting to consider is the Scottish National Party (SNP). The modern relationship between the Greens and the SNP is a brief but toxic whirlwind. The Bute House Agreement that gave the two parties combined power in Holyrood in 2021 also proved to be the killing blow to Humza Yousaf’s tenure as First Minister in 2024 when it was torn apart.Going for the same young and socially conscious demographic as theSNP does, it is easy to imagine the Greens will be gunning for them with the taste of power from the Bute House Agreement still in their mouth pushing them to make gains. But this shouldn’t be read as a death sentence by the SNP. The leaders of the Scottish Greens, Ross Greer and Gillian Mackay, haven’t fully adopted Zack Polanski’s outgoing attitude to leadership, and Polanski hasn’t campaigned in Scotland yet. This gives the SNP an opportunity to fill the clear cavity the public have for a headstrong left-wing political party, as YouGov have the SNP cruising for one of their strongest showings in modern Holyrood history. Greens can scoop up voters here and there, but it may be a while before they return to governmental power.
As for Scottish Labour, watching the results in Gorton and Denton trickle in may be a similar feeling to being stuck on the Titanic and feeling the water reaching your knees. The collapse of Labour’s popularity across Britain has been common knowledge for a long time, with even the Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar stating: “You are right to suggest that there’s a deep unpopularity with a UK Labour government”. Their strategy of calling themselves the only party that can challenge Reform not only makes them seem like they have nothing else on which to sell themselves to the public after two years in office, but has also been proven a lie as the Greens beat both parties comfortably. You have a party with no momentum, no selling points and seemingly no supporters barrelling its way on election day, and a rejuvenated Green Party ready to collide with them head-on in a clash they’ll probably win more times than not. Labour was never going to take over Holyrood in 2026, but they were in a good spot to become the second biggest party in Scotland. But now, the Greens and Reform could very well kick them out of the top three.
On the topic of Reform, their reaction to the Greens should be the most interesting. Their marketing as an alternative to the traditional parties was not dissimilar to how the Greens have sold themselves to voters. Hannah Spencer, Gorton and Denton’s new MP, clearly alluded to this by saying in her victory speech,“Today, the people in this constituency have sent a clear message. They’ve rejected hate and embraced the politics of hope.” The undecided voters, not wanting to feed either of the big traditional two parties, now have two viable options. In Scotland, YouGov has the Greens trailing Reform, but the gap has been closing in the last couple of months. While Reform is yet to lose its lead, it’s a much closer gap than it was this time last year. While Reform would like to say they aren’t scared of the Greens, if Gorton and Denton was any foreshadowing, then the race for the undecided voters will be hard-fought between these two.
“Scottish Green Party Logo” by Zebra848, Do Good Advertising. Copyright Scottish Green Party, permission granted to Wikimedia to use is licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0.
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Should Holyrood Fear the Greens?
In late February, the Green Party picked up the most notable victory in their history by defeating not only Reform but also Labour in their own stronghold, winning the Gorton and Denton seat for Parliament. The Greens’ ability to surpass the slim win pollsters expected out of them should stomp out any remaining believers that they are just a gimmick party that can’t seriously challenge elections in England. So, how should Scottish parties be feeling about the Scottish Parliament Elections in May?
The most interesting to consider is the Scottish National Party (SNP). The modern relationship between the Greens and the SNP is a brief but toxic whirlwind. The Bute House Agreement that gave the two parties combined power in Holyrood in 2021 also proved to be the killing blow to Humza Yousaf’s tenure as First Minister in 2024 when it was torn apart.Going for the same young and socially conscious demographic as theSNP does, it is easy to imagine the Greens will be gunning for them with the taste of power from the Bute House Agreement still in their mouth pushing them to make gains. But this shouldn’t be read as a death sentence by the SNP. The leaders of the Scottish Greens, Ross Greer and Gillian Mackay, haven’t fully adopted Zack Polanski’s outgoing attitude to leadership, and Polanski hasn’t campaigned in Scotland yet. This gives the SNP an opportunity to fill the clear cavity the public have for a headstrong left-wing political party, as YouGov have the SNP cruising for one of their strongest showings in modern Holyrood history. Greens can scoop up voters here and there, but it may be a while before they return to governmental power.
As for Scottish Labour, watching the results in Gorton and Denton trickle in may be a similar feeling to being stuck on the Titanic and feeling the water reaching your knees. The collapse of Labour’s popularity across Britain has been common knowledge for a long time, with even the Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar stating: “You are right to suggest that there’s a deep unpopularity with a UK Labour government”. Their strategy of calling themselves the only party that can challenge Reform not only makes them seem like they have nothing else on which to sell themselves to the public after two years in office, but has also been proven a lie as the Greens beat both parties comfortably. You have a party with no momentum, no selling points and seemingly no supporters barrelling its way on election day, and a rejuvenated Green Party ready to collide with them head-on in a clash they’ll probably win more times than not. Labour was never going to take over Holyrood in 2026, but they were in a good spot to become the second biggest party in Scotland. But now, the Greens and Reform could very well kick them out of the top three.
On the topic of Reform, their reaction to the Greens should be the most interesting. Their marketing as an alternative to the traditional parties was not dissimilar to how the Greens have sold themselves to voters. Hannah Spencer, Gorton and Denton’s new MP, clearly alluded to this by saying in her victory speech,“Today, the people in this constituency have sent a clear message. They’ve rejected hate and embraced the politics of hope.” The undecided voters, not wanting to feed either of the big traditional two parties, now have two viable options. In Scotland, YouGov has the Greens trailing Reform, but the gap has been closing in the last couple of months. While Reform is yet to lose its lead, it’s a much closer gap than it was this time last year. While Reform would like to say they aren’t scared of the Greens, if Gorton and Denton was any foreshadowing, then the race for the undecided voters will be hard-fought between these two.
“Scottish Green Party Logo” by Zebra848, Do Good Advertising. Copyright Scottish Green Party, permission granted to Wikimedia to use is licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0.
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