In one of the most striking geopolitical volte-faces of the 21st century, Donald Trump is reshaping global politics as he initiates open talks with Russia over ending the war in Ukraine – without Ukraine at the table.
On Tuesday 18 February, after three years of diplomatic silence, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to discuss the first steps toward negotiating a peace agreement. The most controversial aspect? Ukraine was not invited. The exclusion of Kyiv from discussions about its own future raises urgent questions about the trajectory of global diplomacy and the shifting power dynamics between the U.S. and Russia.
Compounding the crisis, Trump has escalated his rhetoric against Ukraine, suggesting a rupture in their once-strong alliance. On the same day as the talks, he falsely blamed President Volodymyr Zelensky for the war, going as far as calling him a dictator conveniently ignoring the fact that Ukraine suspended elections because of Russia’s invasion, conveniently ignoring Putin’s suspiciously long stint in power. In what can only be described as an alarming distortion of history, Trump appears to be rewriting the narrative of the war in favour of Russia, weaponising misinformation to justify his diplomatic pivot.
This shift leaves Ukraine in a precarious position. As Kyiv fears negotiations could lead to a peace settlement dictated by Moscow, concerns grow over a potential Russian re-invasion or territorial concessions. These fears are not unfounded – on the very day talks began, Russia launched a fresh wave of drone strikes on the Ukrainian capital. Any negotiation requires compromise, but what concessions can be expected when one party has violated international law, has likely committed war crimes, and waged an expansionist war of aggression?
With Washington stepping back, Ukraine faces the grim reality of losing its most crucial ally, forcing it to rely more heavily on European support. Yet, Europe itself is deeply divided.,
On 17 February, French President Emmanuel Macron convened an emergency summit at the Élysée Palace to discuss the implications of America’s foreign policy shift. However, the meeting ended without a concrete strategy, exposing the fractures within Europe. A second emergency summit was held on 19 February in an attempt to lay out a more coherent strategy amid fears of complete U.S. disengagement. Yet, even after the follow-up discussions, European leaders remain divided on how to respond, underscoring concerns about the continent’s ability to manage the crisis without firm US leadership.
At the heart of the debate lies NATO’s role. While officials scramble to address the implications of Trump’s foreign policy reversal, the strategic uncertainty surrounding the alliance casts a long shadow over Europe’s security. The question remains: Can Europe step up to fill the void left by Washington? If not, the very foundations of transatlantic security may be at stake.
As the tides shift, one thing is clear – Europe must rediscover how to exercise power, or risk being reshaped by forces beyond its control.
“Vladimir Putin & Donald Trump in Helsinki, 16 July 2018 (2)” by Kremlin.ru is licensed under CC BY 4.0.